Oil and gold prices heading higher. Is it a cause for concern? Two key commodities that are influenced by geopolitics have surged in recent weeks. West Texas crude is approaching $90/bbl while gold is hitting $2350. It should be noted that during this period, the US dollar index did not decline, indicating true strength in …
Continue reading “Market Review for week ending 5 April 2024”
After a better showing in the manufacturing PMI, some have pointed to the “still weak” back log index as a sign that there is something wrong with US industry. We disagree. The performance of Trucking stocks suggests that the recovery is ongoing and sustainable.
Fitch Ratings came up with a report, “Global Contagion Risk Growing from Rising CRE Losses, Led by Office”. By percentage of assets and capital, small U.S. banks have significantly higher CRE concentrations than banks with over $100 billion in assets. This could result in the failure of a moderate number of predominantly smaller banks. Naturally, …
Continue reading “Will Commercial Real Estate Trigger The Next Bear Market?”
Positive reading from US and China ISM surveys. Manufacturing recovering. US consumer spending continues unabated. US 2023 Q4 economic growth revised to 3.4%, supported by consumer spending. US stock market outlook is positive, supported by strong market participation. More stocks and sectors are rallying. No longer a Mag-7 or Fab-4 driven bull market. Stay invested, …
On March 19, 2024, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) marked a historic shift by ending its policy of negative interest rates. The first rate hike in 17 years, signifies a potential turning point for the Japanese economy, its stock market, and the Japanese yen. Here are some quick takes: Impact on the Japanese Economy: Inflationary …
Continue reading “BOJ Ends Negative Rates Implications for Japan”
Summary of Main Events: FED Chair pushes back on March rate cuts, but rates have peaked. US jobs report was stellar! Payrolls: 353K vs 185K. US Q4 economic performance outperformed expectations (3.3% vs 2%). Mid-east escalation: US servicemen killed, US strikes back but oil prices steady. Taiwan exports point to new electronics cycle Things to …
The results are out and pro-independence Lai Ching-te, the DPP candidate, is the newly elected president of Taiwan. Naturally, this raises concerns that cross strait tension will increase. In my opinion, the level of tension is unlikely to increase. They will however, remain high. DPP won 40% of the vote (This is lower than the …
As we approach the latter half of 2023, the prevailing theme in the financial landscape is undoubtedly resilience. Despite the Federal Reserve’s assertive rate hikes, occurrences of bank failures, and tightening financial conditions, the US economy has demonstrated remarkable strength, managing to avert a recession. While equity markets have shown positive performance, not all stocks …
The divergence in stock prices and its relative strength appears to be weak, given that market breadth remains strong. New highs are rising, AD line is climbing, equal weighted cyclical indices are up. Probability of stock market rising is higher.
Good news ahead for the US economy. Housing appears to be on a recovery, based on low supply, healthy demand as seen from higher starts, new home sales and builder confidence. Investors are confirming this, judging by the performance of the HGX. Note that this is despite mortgage rates at 6-7%. Also, mortgage demand is …