1) Summary of the Leadership Election On 4 October 2025, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) held a leadership election; Sanae Takaichi won the runoff and is positioned to become Japan’s next prime minister. The leadership race was widely interpreted as a pivotal moment: markets expected the winner to set the tone for fiscal policy, BOJ‑government …
Continue reading “Japan LDP Leadership Change & Market Implications”
What is a Government Shutdown? A U.S. government shutdown occurs when Congress fails to pass appropriations bills or a continuing resolution to fund federal agencies. Non-essential federal employees are placed on unpaid leave, and many government services pause. Essential services, such as national security and public safety, continue. It is distinct from a debt-ceiling crisis, …
Continue reading “Primer on U.S. Government Shutdowns and Market Implications”
US Inflation Maintains FED’s Rate Path The US PCE inflation reading for August came in at 2.7%, matching expectations. So did core PCE. The data gave markets some breathing room that inflation is under control, but also take away the expectations that the FED may cut aggressively. US GDP Revision Complicates The Inflation Outlook Q2 …
Continue reading “Market Wrap For The Week Ending 26 Sep 2025”
US Stocks At New High But USD Is Weak The US stock market remains technically healthy and strongly bullish. The major indices, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and DJIA, are at or near record highs, confirming strong underlying momentum. However, the market is also overbought in the short term, and the possibility of a pullback or …
The FOMC reduced the fed funds rate by 25 bps to 4.00%-4.25% today, the first adjustment in nine months. Newly confirmed Trump ally Governor Stephan Miran was the lone dissenter at the meeting, preferring to cut by a larger 50 bps. The decision reflected a “shift in the balance of risks” with the Committee believing …
The U.S. economy can, and has, grown even when the jobs market is weak. This phenomenon, known as a jobless recovery, has been observed after several recent recessions. GDP growth indicates that the economy is expanding, but it doesn’t always reveal how that growth is being achieved. For example, growth can be driven by a …
Continue reading “The “Jobless Recovery” Is Not New Nor Scary”
U.S. Small Businesses More Confident Small business sentiment continued to climb in August. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increase to 100.8. Growing sales prospects and solid earnings are said to be the driving forces behind the improvement. Small businesses also appeared to receive greater clarity amid the unveiling of the administration’s tariff policy and …
What’s Happening in France? France, Europe’s second-largest economy, is experiencing severe political instability that has captured global attention. The French government led by Prime Minister François Bayrou has collapsed after losing a vote of no confidence, with public trust in the political class having collapsed and anger spilling onto the streets. This crisis didn’t happen …
Continue reading “Do Investors Need To Worry About France’s Political Crisis”
U.S. labour market weakens further. The August 2025 US jobs report revealed a significant weakening in the labor market, with employers adding only 22,000 jobs while the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, well below economists’ expectations of 75,000-76,500 jobs. Job gains over the past three months have averaged less than 30,000, marking a dramatic slowdown …
Continue reading “Market Wrap for the Week Ending 5 Sep 2025”
China was labelled “uninvestible” in 2021–2022 due to regulatory crackdowns, zero-COVID disruptions, and unpredictable policy shifts. However, conditions have changed significantly. While risks remain, the policy environment has stabilised, valuations are compelling, and government support is stronger, making the case for renewed investment in Chinese equities. After the 20th Party Congress (Oct 2022), Beijing recognised …
Continue reading “From “Uninvestible” To “Ignore At Your Own Risk””