US Blowout Employment Report: The US added 254,000 jobs in September, surpassing expectations and lowering the unemployment rate to 4.1%. This stronger-than-anticipated job growth suggests that the Federal Reserve may need to keep interest rates higher for longer to avoid inflationary pressure. Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI): The CESI has turned positive for the first …
Continue reading “Market Wrap for the Week Ending 4 Oct 2024”
US economic revisions – GDP up 3% in Q2. Gross domestic product increased at an unrevised 3.0% annualized rate last quarter, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis confirmed in its third estimate of second-quarter GDP. Gross Domestic Income, which measures economic activity from the income side, increased at a 3.4% rate last quarter, revised …
Continue reading “Market Wrap for the Week Ending 27 September 2024”
On Tuesday, 24th September 2024, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) introduced major changes to its monetary policy aimed at boosting the economy. The central bank announced a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), which is the amount of cash banks must hold in reserve. This move will inject 1 trillion yuan ($142 …
Continue reading “China Getting A Little Worried About Growth”
It was the most anticipated FED meeting in recent times. Even though FED chair set the stage for a rate cut at the Jackson Hole central banking symposium, markets and economic observers could not agree on the size of the cut – 25 or 50bp. Eventually we got 50bp, with one dissent. FED chair did …
Continue reading “Market Summary for the Week Ending 20 Sep 2024”
US CPI – slow improvement The long awaited report is out. According to GS: August’s US headline consumer price index came in 0.2% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year, in line with expectations and below its 20-year average for the first time since 2020. However, core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month (above +0.2% expectations) to the highest level …
Continue reading “Market Wrap for the Week Ending 14 Sep 2024”
It was a week marked by worries over the economy. ISM manufacturing numbers were worse than expected, although it was better than the previous month. The New Order component came in weaker than the previous month, suggesting no improvement for the manufacturing sector in the current month. The labour market also disappointed, although the data …
Continue reading “Market Summary for Week Ending 6 Sep 2024”
Many observers are posting that the dis-inverting yield curve is the real signal of a recession. Historically speaking it is true that when the yield curve dis-inverts, ie. the short term rates starts to fall when the FED cuts, the economy is in trouble (unemployment goes up) and the stock market tanks (2001, 2007/08). The …
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Jackson Hole outcome: “The time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks” Words from the most powerful central banker. A rate cut in September is baked in as policy …
Continue reading “Market Summary for the Week Ending 23 August 2024”
US Earnings Growing – According to LSEG/IBES data, US earnings is healthy: 24Q2 Y/Y earnings are expected to be 12.5%. Excluding the energy sector, the Y/Y earnings estimate is 13.3%. Of the 463 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 24Q2, 78.8% have reported earnings above analyst estimates. This compares …
Continue reading “Market Wrap for Week Ending 16 August 2024”
The past two days have seen a notable decline in the US stock market, causing understandable concern among investors. It’s important to remember that market volatility is a normal part of investing, and temporary dips can often present opportunities for long-term growth. Click to read moreMarket Update 6 August 2024