1. U.S. Tariffs and Rising Trade Tensions
– The U.S. announced new tariffs, including 25% duties on steel and aluminum imports, targeting key trade partners such as the EU, China, India, and Brazil.
– While these measures raised concerns over escalating trade tensions, temporary exemptions were granted to Mexico and Canada, offering some relief.
2. U.S. Economic Data
– Jobs Report: The U.S. added 143,000 jobs in January, below the expected 175,000. However, upward revisions for prior months and a slight drop in unemployment to 4.0% signaled continued labor market resilience.
– Inflation Concerns: The University of Michigan reported one-year inflation expectations at 4.3%, the highest since late 2023, raising concerns about persistent price pressures.
3. Corporate Earnings – A Mixed Bag
So far, 62% of S&P 500 companies have reported their Q4 2024 earnings. Of these, 77% have beaten earnings per share (EPS) estimates—matching the 5-year average but slightly above the 10-year average of 75%. On average, earnings have come in 7.5% higher than expected, which is lower than the 5-year average of 8.5% but better than the 10-year average of 6.7%. The historical averages are based on results from all 500 companies, not just those that have reported so far. (Factset)
U.S. Financial Market Performance
Major Indexes (Week Ending February 9, 2025)
– S&P 500: -0.24%
– Nasdaq 100: +0.06%
– Dow Jones: -241 points (-0.7%)
Sector Highlights
– Technology: Volatile due to concerns over trade restrictions and AI competition.
– Energy: Declined as oil prices fell for a third consecutive week.
Fixed Income & Commodities
– Treasury Yields: Held steady despite market turbulence.
– Gold: Gained for the sixth straight week (+1.2%) as investors sought safe-haven assets amid trade uncertainty.
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Developments in China
1. China’s Retaliatory Trade Measures
– China responded to U.S. tariffs with its own levies (10%-15%) on American goods, including coal, LNG, crude oil, machinery, and vehicles.
– Beijing also imposed export controls on critical minerals like tungsten, tellurium, and bismuth, citing national security concerns.
– U.S. companies PVH Group (Calvin Klein, Tommy Hilfiger) and Illumina Inc. were added to China’s “Unreliable Entity List,” restricting their operations in the country.
– China launched an antitrust investigation into Google and filed a complaint with the WTO against the U.S.’s trade policies.
2. Economic Stimulus Measures and Data
Despite trade tensions, China’s economy showed signs of stabilization, helped by monetary easing and support for the property sector.
Key Economic Indicators:
– Inflation: Consumer prices rose 0.5% year-over-year in January, driven by Lunar New Year spending. This marks the first acceleration in inflation since August 2024.
– Producer Prices: PPI fell 2.3% year-over-year, extending its streak of industrial deflation to 28 months.
– Credit Growth: New yuan loans totaled CNY 990 billion in January, with total social financing reaching CNY 2.86 trillion.
– Vehicle Sales: Surged 10.5% year-over-year, signaling a rebound in demand for durable goods.
– Caixin Services PMI: Fell to 51.0 in January (from 52.3 in December), reflecting slower expansion in the services sector despite holiday-related boosts.