Iran-Israel Tensions The Israel-Iran conflict’s immediate impact is heightened oil prices and market volatility, with risks of broader economic disruption if escalation continues. Diplomacy or limited retaliation could stabilize markets, but a wider conflict involving oil infrastructure or the Strait of Hormuz could lead to severe global economic consequences, including inflation, supply chain disruptions, and …
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S&P 500 reaction to major events
Market Wrap for the Week Ending 6 June 2025
European Central Bank Rate Decision The European Central Bank delivered its third rate cut of 2025, reducing rates by 25 basis points to 2%. The ECB hinted at a pause in its year-long easing cycle after inflation finally returned to its 2% target. ECB President Lagarde signalled a cautious stance going forward, with the bank …
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Market Wrap for Week Ending 30 May 2025
Weekly Investor Missive: S&P 500 Performance: Q1 Highlights Despite Trump’s Tariff Turmoil (TTT), S&P 500 companies showed strength in Q1 2025. FactSet reported revenue growth of 4.7% y/y, slightly below the 10-year average of 5.1%, with 10 of 11 sectors growing, led by Tech, Utilities, and Health Care. Only 62% of firms beat revenue estimates, …
Market Wrap for Week Ending 16 May 2025
US-China trade war truce The US and China agreed to a 90-day pause on high tariffs, reducing the US tariff on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% and China’s tariff on US goods from 125% to 10%. This deal, reached after talks in Geneva, aims to ease trade tensions but leaves uncertainty for businesses planning …
Market Wrap for Week Ending 9 May 2025
U.S.-China Trade Talks Spark Market Optimism Global markets rebounded as U.S.-China trade negotiations in Geneva showed signs of progress. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reported “substantial progress,” and both sides agreed to establish a consultative mechanism for continued economic negotiations. While no formal deal was reached, the talks signalled a potential de-escalation amid concerns about …
Market Sentiment Is Really Bad
The latest Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey, conducted from April 4-10, 2025, covering 195 institutional fund managers with $444 billion in assets under management, reveals a highly bearish outlook, marking it as the fifth most bearish survey in the past 25 years. Macro Outlook Economic Pessimism: 82% of fund managers expect a weaker …
Thoughts on “Liberation Day”
Global markets have spoken on Trump’s universal tariffs on everyone. 54% on China, 46% on Vietnam, 20% on EU, and 10% minimum on all others. By Friday, S&P 500 plunged 10.5% over two days, while Monday futures indicate another 2.5% decline as of writing. Asian markets are also falling, HSI is down 11.3%, TOPIX is …
Market Wrap For The Week Ending 28 March 2025
US Economic data is poor. Consumer confidence fell again, lowest level in 2 years based on the Michigan consumer sentiment index. PCE came in higher than expected. Fostering the case for sticky inflation. More tariff uncertainties, with a new 25% tariffs on all auto imports. Stock markets fell hard on Friday, Wall Street banks are …
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Europe Set To Outperform
After years of underperforming the US, European stocks are set to outperform as Trump forces Europe to borrow and spend.