Banks sit at the intersection of households, businesses, markets, and cash flows. Their earnings calls, especially the Q&A, reveal what people are actually doing, not just what they say they feel.
This latest round of earnings calls from large money-centre banks and major regional banks tells a surprisingly consistent story.
The banks we looked at
Money-centre banks
- JPMorgan Chase
- Bank of America
- Citigroup
- Wells Fargo
Large regional banks
- U.S. Bancorp
- PNC Financial Services
- Truist Financial
- Citizens Financial Group
- Fifth Third Bancorp
Together, these banks touch most of the US consumer, SME, and corporate economy.
No bank is talking like a recession is already here.
At the same time, none are behaving as if growth is re-accelerating.
What we hear instead is a classic late-cycle tone:
- steady activity,
- selective caution,
- intense focus on credit quality and deposits,
- and growing reliance on fee income rather than pure lending growth.
Credit conditions: late-cycle, not crisis
If there were real economic stress, it would show up first in:
- provisions,
- non-performing loans,
- and sharp tightening of credit standards.
That is not what banks are describing.
Instead:
- Credit costs are rising slowly, largely as expected
- Banks are monitoring pockets of weakness, not broad sectors
- Commercial real estate remains a concern — but it is contained and well-telegraphed
Business activity: cautious, but still moving
From JPMorgan down to Fifth Third, banks describe a similar corporate environment:
- Companies are not aggressively expanding, but they are not freezing either
- Capital markets activity (trading, advisory, underwriting) has improved from weak levels
- M&A discussions are happening, even if execution is slower
Importantly, loan demand is modest, not collapsing.
If a recession is coming, the banks aren’t seeing it yet.
What they see instead is an economy that is tired, adapting, and still standing.
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