Good news ahead for the US economy. Housing appears to be on a recovery, based on low supply, healthy demand as seen from higher starts, new home sales and builder confidence. Investors are confirming this, judging by the performance of the HGX. Note that this is despite mortgage rates at 6-7%. Also, mortgage demand is growing.
If the manufacturing sector bottoms, and recovers, it will be another boost. Watch out of a leveling of producer prices, following by an increase. This would indicate a turnaround for the manufacturing sector. Perhaps that is why XLI is doing so well.
If true, the recession call will be invalidated. Especially since inflation is falling and the FED looks likely to pause after one last hike.