US stocks managed to close up on Friday, 14 March 2025. This is the first tentative sign of a bottom, as taking a bullish position over the weekend – where many tweets can be made – is brave for traders. Unlike investors, traders in the current environment want to see bullish news, rather than look …
Continue reading “How Investors Should View The Current Stock Market Weakness”
The recently imposed 25% tariffs on imported steel and aluminum are not expected to significantly raise car prices in the U.S., contrary to headlines. The American automotive industry relies more on domestic production of these metals than imports. Here are the key reasons: 1. High Domestic Sourcing: – A significant portion of steel used by …
Continue reading “The Real Deal On Steel And Aluminium Tariffs”
US economic risk now higher. The risk of a U.S. recession has increased compared to two weeks ago, based on recent economic indicators and forecasters: Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have both revised their U.S. GDP growth forecasts downward for 2025, citing factors such as tariffs and inflationary pressures. Goldman Sachs also raised its 12-month …
Continue reading “Market Wrap for the Week Ending 7 March 2025”
1. U.S. Tariffs and Rising Trade Tensions – The U.S. announced new tariffs, including 25% duties on steel and aluminum imports, targeting key trade partners such as the EU, China, India, and Brazil. – While these measures raised concerns over escalating trade tensions, temporary exemptions were granted to Mexico and Canada, offering some relief. 2. …
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American economic resilience remains intact A slew of economic data continues to indicate that the US economy remains in an expansionary mode. Industrial production, housing starts, and retail sales all improved. Continuing jobless claims fell, signalling the ongoing resilience of the labour market. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow is at a strong 3% for Q4 2024. …
Continue reading “Market Wrap for the Week Ending 17 Jan 2025”
Rocky start to the new year. S&P 500 is down 0.93% year to date, down about 4.5% from its last peak in mid-December. The biggest driver is the move in bond yields, with the UST10Y rising to 4.76% as stronger than expected jobs report tamper expectations of a FED rate cut. How should investors think …
Continue reading “Market Wrap for the Week Ending 10 Jan 2025”
As we look forward to 2025, the global investment landscape is filled with both exciting opportunities and potential challenges. The U.S. economy stands out for its resilience, buoyed by strong consumer spending, technological advancements, and supportive monetary policies. In contrast, China faces a more subdued outlook due to external pressures like U.S. tariffs. The U.S. …
Continue reading “Quick Guide To Our 2025 Investment Outlook”
US Election: Looks like it’s a sweep by the Republicans and equity markets are loving it. S&P 500 is up to new highs and market breadth is solid (equal weighted index is also up to new highs). The past five trading days show broad rallies, not just the tech sector, but also industrials (+6%) and …
Continue reading “Market Wrap for the Week Ending 8 Nov 2024”
China disappoints or investors’ hopes misplaced? China’s government failed to boost its economy over the past week, disappointing investors. After a week-long holiday, Chinese stocks jumped 11% on hopes for stimulus, but no new measures were announced. It subsequently lost 13% for the week, its worst drop since 2008. This writer remains skeptical that central …
Continue reading “Market Wrap for the Week Ending 11 Oct 2024”
US Blowout Employment Report: The US added 254,000 jobs in September, surpassing expectations and lowering the unemployment rate to 4.1%. This stronger-than-anticipated job growth suggests that the Federal Reserve may need to keep interest rates higher for longer to avoid inflationary pressure. Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI): The CESI has turned positive for the first …
Continue reading “Market Wrap for the Week Ending 4 Oct 2024”