The Supreme Court just kneecapped Trump’s “anytime, anywhere” tariffs
The US Supreme Court ruled (6–3) that President Trump exceeded his authority using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose broad global tariffs. (Reuters)
But the ruling didn’t end tariff risk, it reshaped it. Within hours, Trump pivoted to a temporary 10% duty (reported as a 150-day measure with exemptions for some categories), and his team signalled new investigations under other legal authorities. (Reuters)
Nonetheless, policy uncertainty stays high, even if the legal “shortcut” is narrower. Reuters notes trade partners may gain some bargaining power, but Washington can still apply pressure via other channels, though these are narrower, slower and more procedural. (Reuters)
The US military build-up in the Middle East is now market-relevant again
While tariffs grabbed the headlines, the more serious tail risk was geopolitical. This month highlighted one of the largest US military deployments in the region since 2003, with rising concern that diplomacy could be eclipsed by escalation dynamics. (Reuters)
This is the classic recipe for oil volatility and risk-premium swings because markets price in the possibility of rapid escalation. We cannot rule out the region sliding towards conflict as military preparations build.
More AI disruption on software stocks
Software stocks continue to suffer. A sharp drawdown earlier this month tied to fears that new AI tools could commoditise parts of the software stack, citing roughly $830bn wiped from software and services market value over six trading days. (Reuters)
What this means is that investors are no longer attaching a high valuation to these companies as their earnings growth rate is at risk. The rotation away from growth stocks (at risk from AI disruption) to value stocks (benefits from AI usage) remains intact.
The Great Rotation continues: Europe is still getting the marginal dollar
European inflows remained a major theme. According to data from EPFR, which tracks fund flows globally, European equity funds have attracted approximately $10 billion in each of the past two consecutive weeks, putting February 2026 on course to be the single highest month for inflows into European stocks ever recorded.
Price action has matched the story. Bloomberg reported the Stoxx Europe 600 hit an all-time high around 630, with rotation partly driven by investors seeking diversification away from US tech turbulence and relatively cheaper valuations. (Bloomberg.com)
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