Updated: 12 May 2026
US Economic Dashboard
A practical dashboard for tracking whether the US economy is in expansion, slowdown, soft landing, or recession-risk territory.
Dashboard signal
Slowdown, not recession
Growth remains positive, but labour and inflation signals need watching.
Positive signals
1
Main support: services activity and market resilience.
Neutral signals
5
Positive, but no longer clearly accelerating.
Caution signals
6
Main risks: sticky inflation and softer labour momentum.
Recession-risk trend
Illustrative monthly risk score. Replace with your preferred model or probability estimate.
Market-based signals
Useful for judging whether macro risk is already priced.
Above 200-day moving average
Real yields still positive
No broad stress signal yet
Important for global liquidity and EM assets
Indicator table
Use this section for weekly or monthly dashboard updates.
Growth
Real GDP Growth
2.1%
QoQ annualised
Growth remains positive, but not strong enough by itself to remove slowdown risk.
Source: BEA
Business Cycle
ISM Manufacturing PMI
49.2
Latest month
Manufacturing is still near contraction territory; a sustained move above 50 would be healthier.
Source: ISM
Business Cycle
ISM Services PMI
51.6
Latest month
Services remain expansionary, supporting overall economic resilience.
Source: ISM
Labour Market
Nonfarm Payrolls
+175k
Monthly change
Job creation is still positive, but momentum has moderated.
Source: BLS
Labour Market
Unemployment Rate
4.0%
Latest month
A gradual rise in unemployment would matter more if claims and payrolls weaken together.
Source: BLS
Labour Market
Continuing Jobless Claims
1.90m
Weekly
Higher continuing claims suggest it is taking longer for unemployed workers to find jobs.
Source: US Department of Labor
Inflation
Headline CPI
3.2%
YoY
Inflation has eased from the peak but remains above the Fed’s comfort zone.
Source: BLS
Inflation
Core CPI
3.6%
YoY
Core inflation is the key constraint on faster Fed easing.
Source: BLS
Consumer
Retail Sales
2.8%
YoY
Consumer spending is still growing, but the pace should be watched against income growth.
Source: US Census Bureau
Consumer
Michigan Sentiment
67.4
Index
Weak sentiment can signal pressure on lower- and middle-income households.
Source: University of Michigan
Housing
Housing Starts
1.32m
Annualised
Housing remains rate-sensitive; mortgage rates are still a headwind.
Source: US Census Bureau
Policy
Fed Funds Rate
5.25–5.50%
Target range
Policy remains restrictive until inflation falls more convincingly or labour weakens materially.
Source: Federal Reserve
Scenario probabilities
A simple regime framework for advisor discussions.
Portfolio implications
Translate macro signals into portfolio actions.
Equities supported; quality cyclicals and non-US equities can participate.
Rates stay high; favour quality balance sheets, pricing power and short-duration bonds.
Treasuries and defensive equities likely outperform; credit risk should be reduced.
Cash, duration and defensive sectors become more important.
Suggested monthly update process
Update the dashboard after payrolls, CPI, retail sales, ISM manufacturing, ISM services and the FOMC meeting. The most important changes to flag are not single data points, but clusters: weaker payrolls plus rising claims; sticky core CPI plus higher inflation expectations; weaker retail sales plus falling sentiment; or falling PMIs plus widening credit spreads.