{"id":461,"date":"2025-04-17T01:54:33","date_gmt":"2025-04-17T01:54:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/inmyopinion.com.sg\/?p=461"},"modified":"2025-04-17T01:54:33","modified_gmt":"2025-04-17T01:54:33","slug":"market-sentiment-is-really-bad","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/inmyopinion.com.sg\/?p=461","title":{"rendered":"Market Sentiment Is Really Bad"},"content":{"rendered":"
The latest Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey, conducted from April 4-10, 2025, covering 195 institutional fund managers with $444 billion in assets under management, reveals a highly bearish outlook, marking it as the fifth most bearish survey in the past 25 years.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
Macro Outlook<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
    \n
  • \n
    Economic Pessimism<\/span><\/span><\/span>: 82% of fund managers expect a weaker global economy<\/span> over the next 12 months, with 42% anticipating a recession, the fourth-highest recession expectation in 20 years<\/span>.<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    Inflation Concerns<\/span><\/span><\/span>: 57% predict rising global inflation<\/span>, a significant shift from previous expectations of lower inflation.<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    U.S. Exceptionalism Wanes<\/span><\/span><\/span>: A net 62% believe the theme of “U.S. exceptionalism” has peaked<\/span>, with reduced confidence in U.S. economic outperformance.<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
    Sentiment<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/div>\n
      \n
    • \n
      Bearish Sentiment<\/span><\/span><\/span>: The survey\u2019s broadest sentiment measure, based on cash levels, economic growth expectations, and equity allocations, reflects extreme pessimism, driven by a worsening U.S. economic outlook, though China\u2019s growth outlook slightly improved.<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      Bull Crash<\/span><\/span><\/span>: Investor sentiment experienced a “bull crash,” with the second-largest monthly rise in macro pessimism since 1994<\/span>.<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
      Positioning<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/div>\n
        \n
      • \n
        Equity Sell-Off<\/span><\/span><\/span>: Global investors significantly reduced equity holdings, with a record 40-percentage-point drop in U.S. equity allocation<\/span>, the largest monthly decline on record. A record number of investors plan to cut U.S. stock exposure further.<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Cash and Bonds Increase<\/span><\/span><\/span>: Cash levels rose sharply to 4.1% from 3.5% in February, the highest since 2010, and bond allocations increased, reflecting a flight to safety.<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        Regional Shifts<\/span><\/span><\/span>: Eurozone stocks saw increased allocations (net 39% overweight, up from 12% in February), as did global emerging markets (net 20% overweight). Japanese equities remained slightly underweight, while UK allocations rose to a net 4% overweight.<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
        Biggest Tail Risks<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/div>\n
          \n
        • \n
          Trade War<\/span><\/span><\/span>: 55% of managers cited a trade war-induced recession as the top tail risk, particularly due to potential tariffs under the new U.S. administration.<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
        • \n
          Inflation and Rates<\/span><\/span><\/span>: 31% highlighted inflation forcing the Federal Reserve to raise rates, down from 41% in January.<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
        • \n
          Other Risks<\/span><\/span><\/span>: 13% pointed to an AI bubble, and 10% noted new geopolitical conflicts.<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
          Bank of America Commentary<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/div>\n
            \n
          • \n
            The survey notes a sharp shift in investor outlook, with the U.S. economy expected to weaken (net 71% anticipate a downturn) while China\u2019s outlook brightened (net 28% expect strengthening).<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
          • \n
            Expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts increased, with 68% anticipating cuts in 2025, up from 51% in February, though the magnitude of cuts remains debated.<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
              \n
            • \n
              The bearish sentiment contrasts with earlier 2025 surveys, such as February\u2019s, which showed bullishness at a three-year high and low recession fears.<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
              Given the high level of bearishness and low positioning in US equities, it would take a drastic deterioration in US-China relations to push equity markets further down. The bottom looks in, but a rally would require good \u00a0news from trade negotiations.<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

              The latest Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey, conducted from April 4-10, 2025, covering 195 institutional fund managers with $444 billion in assets under management, reveals a highly bearish outlook, marking it as the fifth most bearish survey in the past 25 years.\u00a0 Macro Outlook Economic Pessimism: 82% of fund managers expect a weaker […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-461","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nMarket Sentiment Is Really Bad -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/inmyopinion.com.sg\/?p=461\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta 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