An approach shaped by market cycles, not forecasts.
Markets are complex, adaptive systems. They rarely move in straight lines, and they rarely reward consensus thinking. My approach is grounded in understanding regime change, policy dynamics, and risk, rather than predicting short-term market moves.
First principles over forecasts
I begin with the underlying drivers of markets — growth, inflation, policy, liquidity, and currencies — rather than price targets or short-term predictions.
Instead of asking where markets might trade, the focus is on what conditions must hold for current prices to persist, and where expectations are most vulnerable to change. This approach places greater emphasis on risk, asymmetry, and regime shifts, particularly when consensus views become crowded.
Forecasts expire quickly. A framework grounded in these fundamentals is more resilient, and better suited to navigating uncertainty across market cycles..
Macro insights must translate into decisions
Macro analysis is only useful if it informs portfolio construction. Every view expressed here is assessed through the lens of risk: what could go wrong, what is already priced in, and where asymmetries may exist.
The emphasis is not on being early, but on being right over the full cycle.
Experience matters most when markets are under stress
My perspective has been shaped by navigating multiple periods of market stress, including the Global Financial Crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic. These episodes reinforced a simple truth: correlations change, liquidity matters, and narratives can shift abruptly.
Periods of calm are easy. It is during volatility that discipline and judgement matter most.
What you should expect from this site
Independent views, not a house position
No product recommendations or sales agenda
A focus on risks as much as opportunities
Willingness to challenge popular narratives
The goal is not to predict the future with precision, but to help readers think more clearly about uncertainty and its implications.
I also work with a small number of clients on bespoke portfolio construction and ongoing management, informed by the same macro and risk frameworks discussed here.
Enquiries typically begin with a discussion around objectives, constraints, and risk tolerance.
If this is relevant to you, you can reach me via email